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18 Nov 2025

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Pair steadies near 1.1600 after retreat from two-week high

EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1600 in Tuesday’s late Asian session after pulling back from last week’s two-week high at 1.1656. The pair is struggling to regain momentum as the US Dollar loses traction ahead of Thursday’s delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which now dominates market focus.

The US Dollar Index trades slightly lower near 99.45 after a brief recovery driven by fading expectations of a December Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bps cut in December has fallen to 43%, down sharply from 62% one week earlier.

In the Eurozone, ECB policymakers continue to signal support for keeping rates unchanged, noting a balance between growth risks and inflation pressures.

Technically, EUR/USD remains pressured below a descending trendline from the September 22 high of 1.1818 and has pulled back toward the 20-day EMA. The 14-day RSI stays within the neutral 40–60 range, signaling consolidation.

Key support rests at the October 9 low of 1.1542, followed by the August low near 1.1400 and June low at 1.1347.
On the upside, a break above 1.1656 could open the door toward 1.1700 and the October 17 high of 1.1728.

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