Global markets reacted to weaker-than-expected US employment data, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less aggressive monetary policy in the coming months.

The US economy added only 57,000 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) jobs in June, while previous months' employment figures were revised lower. Although average hourly earnings met expectations and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%, the decline was mainly driven by lower labor force participation rather than stronger hiring.

🇺🇸 US Dollar & Federal Reserve
The softer labor report has reduced expectations for further aggressive interest rate hikes.
Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of one final Fed rate hike, with September remaining the most likely timing. As a result, US Treasury yields eased, providing temporary relief across financial markets.
A softer Federal Reserve outlook could weigh on the US Dollar in the short term if upcoming inflation and economic data continue to disappoint.

🛢 Oil Market Update
Crude oil remains relatively stable despite ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
WTI crude is trading around $67 per barrel, with prices staying below the important $70 level.
Market sentiment is being influenced by:
Rising global oil inventories.
Reports of increasing oversupply.
Iranian oil exports entering global markets.
Reduced concerns about immediate supply disruptions.
These factors continue to limit upside momentum in oil prices.

📈 Market Outlook
Investors will closely monitor upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve comments to determine whether the recent weakness in the labor market is temporary or the beginning of a broader economic slowdown.

Trading Bias
💵 US Dollar: Neutral to Bearish
🥇 Gold: Supported if Treasury yields continue to decline.
🛢 Crude Oil: Neutral to Bearish while trading below $70.

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