USD/CHF is trading around 0.8054, with price action suggesting the pair is completing an A-B-C corrective reversal following a five-wave Elliott Wave bullish advance. A daily close above the 0.8065 level—near the June 26 and June 30 lows—would confirm a Morning Star candlestick pattern, a classic bullish reversal signal that could indicate the recent bearish correction has ended.

Momentum indicators present a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) is holding near 57, reflecting positive momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD has turned slightly negative, indicating that bullish momentum has eased, although it does not yet confirm a broader trend reversal.
A confirmed break above 0.8065 would strengthen the bullish outlook and shift attention toward the 0.8120–0.8140 resistance zone, where the highs from June 24, June 26, and July 1 converge. Beyond that, the next major upside target stands at 0.8170, the August 2025 swing high.

On the downside, the psychological 0.8000 level continues to provide important support. A decisive break below this area would expose the 0.7915 support zone, where the mid-June lows align with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Further weakness could extend losses toward 0.7900, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May–June rally.

Bullish Scenario
Daily close above 0.8065 confirms the Morning Star pattern.
Initial upside target: 0.8120
Extended target: 0.8140
Final bullish target: 0.8170

Bearish Scenario
Price falls below 0.8000 with strong bearish momentum.
Initial downside target: 0.7915
Extended downside target: 0.7900

Key Levels
Resistance: 0.8065 • 0.8120 • 0.8140 • 0.8170
Support: 0.8000 • 0.7915 • 0.7900

Risk Disclaimer: Trading leveraged products such as forex carries significant risk. Always use proper risk management and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.

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