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24 Jun 2026

Gold bears turn cautions amid slightly oversold RSI; upside seems limited

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure as repeated failures near the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart reinforce the bearish bias. A decisive break and sustained acceptance below the $4,100 level would likely act as a fresh trigger for sellers, increasing the probability of further downside momentum.

Momentum indicators continue to support this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory around 31, while the MACD remains in negative territory with a declining signal line. Although these readings suggest that bearish momentum is stretched, they have not yet produced a meaningful reversal signalβ€”meaning downside risks still dominate, even if short-term corrective bounces occur.

From a downside perspective, the next key area of interest is the year-to-date low around $4,024–$4,023, which was tested earlier this month. A move toward this zone remains plausible if selling pressure persists.

On the upside, the 100-period SMA at approximately $4,287 is the first significant resistance. A sustained break above this level would be required to neutralize the current bearish structure and shift the market into a more neutral consolidation phase. Until then, rallies toward the $4,280–$4,290 region are likely to attract renewed selling interest, given the absence of a confirmed bullish reversal in momentum signals.

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