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24 Jun 2026

πŸ“‰ EUR/USD Price Forecast: New One-Year Low as USD Strength Dominates

EUR/USD continues to extend its decline for a third consecutive session, marking five negative closes in the last six trading days. During the Asian session, the pair slipped to a fresh one-year low around 1.1365, with price action remaining under pressure amid sustained US Dollar strength.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has surged to a 13-month high, supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may resume rate hikes later this year to combat persistent inflation. In addition, mixed geopolitical signals surrounding US–Iran relations have contributed to safe-haven demand for the USD. These factors have outweighed the European Central Bank’s relatively hawkish tone, keeping EUR/USD on the defensive.

From a technical perspective, the pair continues to struggle after repeated rejections below the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, while the break under the 1.1500 psychological level further strengthens the bearish structure.

Momentum indicators remain weak. The RSI (14) is deeply oversold near 21, while the MACD remains negative, confirming persistent downside pressure. However, such oversold conditions also suggest that bearish momentum may be approaching exhaustion, increasing the probability of short-term consolidation or a corrective bounce.

On the upside, any recovery is likely to face strong resistance around the 100-day SMA at 1.1544, which now acts as a key barrier. A sustained break above this level would be required to ease bearish pressure and shift sentiment toward a more neutral or bullish outlook.

Until then, rallies are likely to be seen as selling opportunities, with overall market bias still tilted to the downside.

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