Market Overview:
USD/JPY continues to show bullish resilience, trading around 159.20 after attracting dip-buying following a pullback from the 159.75 yearly high. The pair remains supported as buyers maintain control, although caution persists ahead of key central bank decisions.
All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meetings this week, which are expected to drive the next major move in the market.
Fundamental Drivers:
Fed Decision (Wednesday): Expected to hold rates steady, but outlook on inflation and rate cuts will drive USD strength.
BoJ Decision (Thursday): Traders are watching for any shift in policy that could strengthen the Yen.
Intervention Risk: Japanese authorities may step in if Yen weakness becomes excessive, potentially limiting USD/JPY upside.
Technical Analysis:
Price holds above the 200-period SMA (4H) → bullish structure intact
MACD: Turning positive → improving momentum
RSI (~49): Neutral → mild bullish bias, not overbought
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
159.60 (intraday resistance)
159.75 (recent high)
160.00 (psychological level 🚨)
Support:
159.00 (immediate support)
158.40 (200 SMA)
158.00 (key downside level)
Trading Insights:
USD/JPY remains in a controlled bullish trend, but traders should stay alert as Fed & BoJ news could trigger high volatility. A breakout above 160.00 could open strong bullish continuation, while a break below 158.40 may shift momentum bearish.
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