USD/CHF extends its advance for the second straight session, trading around 0.7950 during Monday’s Asian hours. The pair strengthens as the US Dollar benefits from fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. With the US government now reopened, traders are preparing for a backlog of delayed economic data that could help clarify the Fed’s policy direction.

The September Nonfarm Payrolls report, now scheduled for release on November 20, is in focus, although uncertainty remains. US National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett recently warned that some October data may “never materialize” due to agencies being unable to collect information during the shutdown.

Current market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool shows a 46% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December—down sharply from 67% just one week earlier. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials have contributed to this shift. Kansas City Fed President Jeffery Schmid noted that policy should continue to “lean against demand growth,” while St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that rates are now closer to neutral and that easing policy too soon could be risky.

On the other hand, gains in USD/CHF may be limited. The Swiss Franc could find support as expectations grow that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% in December amid signs of inflation trending slightly higher. SNB Vice President Antoine Martin recently said inflation is “expected to increase slightly,” supporting a steady policy stance.

Additionally, the CHF strengthened after the Swiss government reached a 15% tariff agreement with the Trump administration, easing pressure on Switzerland after previously facing the highest tariff imposed on any developed economy.