Key Data Release:

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Expected +70K in January (December: +50K)
Unemployment Rate: Expected steady at 4.4%
Average Hourly Earnings: Expected softening to +3.6% y/y
The delayed NFP report will be released at 13:30 GMT, following the recent US government shutdown. Volatility around the USD is expected to spike, as traders assess the labor market and the Fed’s next policy moves.

What Traders Should Watch
NFP below 30K + higher unemployment: USD may weaken → EUR/USD could rise.
NFP meets/exceeds 70K: USD may strengthen → EUR/USD could face resistance.
Wage growth: Softer-than-expected earnings could limit USD strength even if jobs print meets expectations.
TD Securities expects moderate job gains (private sector: +40K, government: +5K) concentrated in healthcare and construction, with the labor market remaining stable in a “low-fire, low-hire” environment.
Danske Bank analysts highlight cooling wage growth as a potential dovish signal for the Fed, which could influence consumer activity and markets.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Support levels: 1.1680 (100-day SMA), then 1.1620–1.1600 (200-day SMA & Fib 23.6%)
Resistance levels: 1.2000 (psychological), then 1.2080 (January 27 high), 1.2160 (static level)
Momentum: RSI above 50; price above 20-day SMA – buyers still in control, but USD volatility from NFP may trigger swings.

💡 Trading Insight:
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