24 Oct 2025
📊 US CPI September 2025 – Analysis & Market Implications
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is expected to rise 3.1% YoY, up from 2.9% in August, signaling an acceleration in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, is projected to remain steady at 3.1% YoY, while monthly gains are expected at 0.4% for headline CPI and 0.3% for core CPI.
Key Takeaways for Traders:
Fed Rate Cut Expectations:
The market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in the upcoming meeting.
Even a moderate upside surprise in CPI may not deter the Fed from cutting rates, but a significant deviation could influence December rate expectations.
US Dollar Implications:
The USD Index (DXY) is showing short-term bullish momentum, supported by RSI near 60 and above key SMAs (20, 50, 100-day).
Resistance levels: 99.50 (Fibonacci 23.6%), 100.00 (psychological), 100.80 (200-day SMA)
Support levels: 98.50 (20-day SMA), 98.10–98.00 (50/100-day SMA), 96.40 (downtrend end-point)
Inflation Drivers:
Core inflation is showing some slowdown due to cooling services, especially housing.
Goods inflation may accelerate due to tariff pass-through, potentially impacting headline CPI.
Market Outlook:
A slightly stronger USD could result if CPI surprises to the upside.
Overall, CPI data is crucial for traders positioning ahead of the Fed meeting, as it could trigger volatility in FX and equity markets.
📌 Conclusion:
September CPI data is a key market event. Traders should watch USD technical levels closely, alongside the headline and core CPI figures, as they will influence Fed rate decisions and near-term currency trends.
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