11 Mar 2026
US CPI expected to remain steady in February as markets assess Fed rate path
Overview:
EUR/USD remains under pressure as markets anticipate the US CPI release for February 2026. Inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.4% YoY, with core CPI at 2.5% YoY. Market reaction may be muted due to recent volatility in crude oil prices.
Technical Levels:
Resistance: 1.1675 – 1.1700 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement)
Next Resistance: 1.1750 – 1.1820
Support: 1.1600 – 1.1590 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement)
Major Support: 1.1500 – 1.1470
Indicators:
RSI (Daily): Rebounded from near 30 but below 50 – bullish reversal not confirmed.
SMA: Price remains below 200-day SMA and 100-day SMA – bearish bias intact.
Market Outlook:
Failure to reclaim resistance near 1.1675-1.1700 could open downside toward 1.1600 and further to 1.1500-1.1470.
A strong US CPI print may boost USD, pushing EUR/USD lower.
Traders should monitor CPI surprises and crude oil price movements for short-term volatility.
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