📊 USD/JPY Technical Analysis
26 Jun 2026
26 Jun 2026
📊 Gold (XAU/USD) Elliott Wave Analysis – Bearish Cycle Targets $3,400 Zone
Gold remains under significant bearish pressure after peaking at an all-time high of $5,598.75 on January 29, 2026. Since then, the precious metal has entered a prolonged corrective phase that has persisted for nearly five months, suggesting that the broader bullish cycle has transitioned into a deeper retracement structure.
According to Elliott Wave analysis, the decline is unfolding as a double three corrective pattern, indicating that the correction may not yet be complete. Current projections point toward an extreme downside target between $3,040 and $3,400, provided the structure continues to develop without truncation.
📉 Elliott Wave Structure
The bearish sequence from the June 18 high continues to evolve as a five-wave impulse:
Wave 1: Declined to $4,218.42
Wave 2: Corrective rebound to $4,330.01
Wave 3: Extended decline to $3,958.81
Wave 4: Recovery phase completed near $4,044.29
Wave 5: Expected to be underway, targeting fresh lows
The completion of Wave 5 would likely conclude the larger Wave (A) of the corrective cycle.
🔴 Key Resistance Level
$4,384.70 → Major structural pivot
As long as price remains below this level, the broader bearish outlook remains intact.
Any recovery attempts are expected to be corrective rather than trend-changing.
🟢 Key Downside Targets
$3,800 – $3,700 → Initial support region
$3,400 → Major Elliott Wave target
$3,040 → Extreme bearish target if downside momentum accelerates
📈 What Happens After Wave (A)?
Once the current five-wave decline completes, Elliott Wave theory suggests that Gold could enter a Wave (B) corrective rally.
This recovery phase may retrace a portion of the decline from the June 18 high before sellers regain control and initiate the next bearish leg lower.
However, unless Gold breaks above the $4,384.70 pivot, rallies are expected to remain corrective and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
📊 Technical Outlook
The broader trend remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows continuing to dominate the market structure. The Elliott Wave count supports further downside, while any short-term rebounds are likely to face strong resistance.
Trading Bias:
Short-Term: Bearish 📉
Medium-Term: Bearish 📉
Long-Term: Corrective cycle remains active 📉
🎯 Market Outlook
As long as Gold remains below $4,384.70, the path of least resistance continues to point lower. Elliott Wave projections indicate that the ongoing correction could extend toward the $3,400–$3,040 region, making these levels critical targets for traders monitoring the broader trend.
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