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10 Nov 2025

EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Persists Below 100-Day EMA Near 1.1550

The EUR/USD pair trades slightly lower around 1.1565 during Mondayโ€™s early European session, as the US Dollar gains modest strength amid optimism that the prolonged US government shutdown may soon end. The US Senate advanced a government funding bill over the weekend, bringing the measure closer to final passage, a development that has provided near-term support to the Greenback.

From a technical perspective, the pair remains capped below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the midline near 44.95, indicating that further downside pressure is likely in the near term.

Resistance and Support Levels:

  • Immediate resistance: 1.1575 (100-day EMA)

  • Next upside targets: 1.1668 (October 28 high), then the 1.1700โ€“1.1705 psychological zone

  • Initial support: 1.1468 (November 5 low)

  • Further downside: 1.1403 (July 31 low), with a secondary support at 1.1364 (June 3 low)

Overall, while positive US fiscal developments could offer intermittent support, EUR/USD remains under pressure below key technical barriers. Traders should watch for a decisive break above the 100-day EMA to signal a potential shift in momentum, while a breach of 1.1468 could open the path for deeper declines toward mid-year lows.

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