EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Persists Below 100-Day EMA Near 1.1550
The EUR/USD pair trades slightly lower around 1.1565 during Mondayโs early European session, as the US Dollar gains modest strength amid optimism that the prolonged US government shutdown may soon end. The US Senate advanced a government funding bill over the weekend, bringing the measure closer to final passage, a development that has provided near-term support to the Greenback.
From a technical perspective, the pair remains capped below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits below the midline near 44.95, indicating that further downside pressure is likely in the near term.
Resistance and Support Levels:
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Immediate resistance: 1.1575 (100-day EMA)
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Next upside targets: 1.1668 (October 28 high), then the 1.1700โ1.1705 psychological zone
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Initial support: 1.1468 (November 5 low)
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Further downside: 1.1403 (July 31 low), with a secondary support at 1.1364 (June 3 low)
Overall, while positive US fiscal developments could offer intermittent support, EUR/USD remains under pressure below key technical barriers. Traders should watch for a decisive break above the 100-day EMA to signal a potential shift in momentum, while a breach of 1.1468 could open the path for deeper declines toward mid-year lows.