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08 Aug 2025
🇩🇪 DAX Index Outlook: Can Bulls Target 24,500 as Peace Talks and Fed Hopes Lift Risk Appetite?
The DAX Index surged 1.12% on Thursday to close at 24,193, driven by investor optimism surrounding a possible Trump-Putin peace deal and renewed Fed pivot hopes. The geopolitical momentum—paired with dovish US economic data and resilient German trade numbers—lifted sentiment across European equities.
🔑 Key Drivers Behind the Rally:
Peace Speculation: Reports that former President Trump and President Putin plan to meet spurred hopes of a ceasefire in Ukraine, boosting risk sentiment.
German Trade Data: Imports from the US soared 19.8% in June, potentially offsetting worries about new tariffs as Germany’s exports showed resilience.
Fed Rate Cut Bets: With US jobless claims rising and labor costs falling, the probability of a September rate cut remains high at 92.7%, supporting risk-on flows.
📈 Technical Picture: Will DAX Break 24,500?
The DAX remains above both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, signaling strong bullish momentum after a four-day winning streak.
Bullish Targets:
Break above 24,392 (August 7 high) may pave the way toward 24,500.
Sustained buying could eventually challenge the record high of 24,639.
Bearish Risk:
A dip below 24,000 would bring the 50-day EMA into focus.
Failure to hold above 24k could expose key support near 23,500.
📰 Market Movers – August 7 Recap:
Heidelberg Materials +6.04%
Commerzbank +4.94%, Deutsche Bank +2.64%
Allianz SE +4.11%, Siemens AG +3.7% on solid earnings
Rheinmetall AG -7.99%, Deutsche Telekom -4.98% on weak results
Munich Re earnings expected today
🔮 Outlook Summary: What to Watch Next
Key catalysts shaping DAX direction in the coming days:
✅ Peace Talks Progress – Any confirmation of Trump-Putin talks could drive risk assets sharply higher
✅ Fed Commentary – Dovish signals may support further upside; hawkish tone risks downside
✅ Trade Data & Earnings – Continued resilience in German trade and corporate earnings will add support
⚠️ Risk – If talks stall or tariffs escalate, a retest of 23,500 becomes more likely
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