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04 Nov 2025

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish outlook remains in place near 100.50 as RBA keeps rates unchanged

The AUD/JPY pair trades slightly lower around 100.50 in Tuesday’s early European session after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 3.6% in its November meeting. The move was widely expected, following stronger-than-anticipated inflation data for the September quarter, which kept policymakers cautious about further tightening or easing.

RBA Governor Michele Bullock reiterated that the central bank remains focused on bringing inflation sustainably back within its target range, while keeping an eye on labor market conditions and household spending trends. The decision reflects a balanced stance as Australia continues to navigate sticky price pressures and slowing global growth.

From a technical perspective, the AUD/JPY cross maintains a constructive outlook, staying comfortably above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also remains above the 60 mark, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact despite minor intraday corrections.

On the upside, the immediate resistance is seen at 101.65, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A clear break above this zone could encourage buyers to push toward 102.30 (the high of November 8, 2024) and possibly 103.12, the peak from July 24, 2024. Sustained strength above these levels would reinforce the longer-term uptrend and open the door to further gains.

On the downside, the 100.00 psychological level acts as the first major support. A decisive break below it could attract fresh selling pressure, exposing 99.74 (the low of October 29) and then 97.84, the low recorded on October 10. However, as long as the pair holds above the 100-day EMA, the broader bias remains bullish.

In the broader market context, the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to draw limited safe-haven bids as investors monitor developments around global interest rate trajectories and US-China trade relations. Meanwhile, risk sentiment remains relatively stable, helping commodity-linked currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD) stay supported.

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