AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish momentum stays intact above EMA near 100.50
AUD/JPY trades slightly lower around 100.85 during Monday’s Asian session. Despite the pullback, downside pressure remains limited as strong Australian employment data continues to support expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain a cautious policy stance.
Meanwhile, fresh data from Japan’s Cabinet Office showed that the economy contracted 1.8% annualized in Q3 2025, marking the first decline in six quarters. The softer GDP reading has reduced the likelihood of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in December, weighing on the Japanese Yen and offering a tailwind for the AUD/JPY pair.
From a technical standpoint, the bullish outlook remains intact. The cross is still supported above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day RSI sits above the midline near 58.10, signaling ongoing upward momentum.
On the upside, the first major resistance sits at 101.75, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could pave the way toward 102.30 (the November 8, 2024 high), with the next key target at 103.48, the high from April 26, 2024.
On the downside, the 100.00 psychological level remains crucial support. A sustained move below this zone could trigger a deeper pullback toward 98.97 (November 7 low), followed by 98.60, the lower Bollinger Band boundary.