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14 Nov 2025

AUD/JPY Forecast – Expanded & Clear Summary

The AUD/JPY pair is trading slightly lower around 100.85 during early European hours on Friday, though the broader market outlook remains constructive above the 100.50–100.00 support region. Despite the small pullback, the Australian Dollar’s downside appears limited thanks to stronger-than-expected labor market data, which supports the view that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will maintain its current interest rate stance.

Fresh data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed improvement in October’s employment conditions. The Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.3%, down from 4.5% in September and beating expectations of 4.4%. Meanwhile, Employment Change surged to 42.2K, nearly double the market forecast of 20K and significantly higher than September’s revised 12.8K. These figures indicate resilience in Australia’s job market, offering underlying support to the Aussie.

From a technical perspective, AUD/JPY maintains a bullish structure in the longer term, holding comfortably above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Momentum indicators also favor the upside, with the 14-day RSI at 59.10, firmly above the midpoint, signaling continued bullish pressure.

On the upside, the immediate resistance zone lies between 101.80 and 101.85, which corresponds to the upper Bollinger Band and the November 13 high. A decisive break above this area may trigger further gains toward 102.30, the high reached on November 8, 2024. If bullish momentum extends, the next notable resistance awaits at 103.48, the high from April 26, 2024.

To the downside, the most critical support sits at the 100.00 psychological level. A sustained move below this level could shift momentum in favor of sellers, exposing 98.97 (the November 7 low) as the next bearish target. A further decline could bring the pair toward 98.28, aligning with the lower Bollinger Band.

Overall, AUD/JPY retains a bullish bias above 100.50, with strong fundamentals and supportive technicals suggesting the pair may attempt to retest higher resistance levels unless price action slips below the key 100.00 threshold.


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